The graph below shows the trading history of winter’s natural gas
futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). It reflects the
historic settlement prices - described as the actual prices that could have been obtained for flat monthly volumes of natural
gas to be delivered from November 2010 through March 2011.
Click
here to view larger image of graph above
As is evident, prices are changing constantly and where this
winter’s prices will actually settle is still unpredictable. The
projected NYMEX price is simply the market’s best guess of
what future prices will be during the winter, based on
technical and fundamental information available today. New
information becomes available every day and the market’s
prediction of future prices will react
accordingly.
Knowing the current level of future natural gas prices is an
extremely useful piece of information for those trying to manage
energy budgets. Because natural gas futures prices are publicly
traded on the NYMEX, customers can use CenterPoint Energy
Services (CES) to lock-in a particular monthly price (or
multi-month strip) for all or part of their expected monthly
natural gas use. And, since the commodity price can easily
amount to 90-plus percent of a monthly natural gas bill,
having the ability to lock prices gives customers control over
exactly how much they will be paying for gas in future months.
Whether a locked price ends up being higher or lower than the
actual market price for a particular month won’t be known until
the future becomes the present. Locking a price gives a customer
a “known” price, not necessarily a “low” price or a “high” price
(compared to the actual settlement price).
Many CES customers already take advantage of their ability to
lock commodity prices as they implement their individual energy
management plans. CES does not prescribe to “one plan fits
all” when it comes to managing natural gas costs. Each facility
has its unique operating characteristics and is exposed to
unique positive or negative consequences from changes in natural
gas prices. As such, CES wants to work individually with each of
its customers to develop and implement a price management plan
that works best for them.
We have summarized below five basic approaches that customers
can use to manage their natural gas prices. When used in
conjunction with a sound natural gas consumption strategy, one
of the following approaches could be just what is needed to take
control of your natural gas expense budget.
- Get the bill, pay the bill. A totally market-based approach.
- Monthly market-based price. Use the CES managed cost pool for
un-locked usage.
- Self-directed hedging program. Use CES to execute variable
term price locks based on your company’s self-directed strategy.
- Set and forget. An often overlooked approach whereby 80-90
percent of projected natural gas use is locked all at one time,
for example, when budgets are finalized.
- Structured hedging program. Customer works with CES to set a
series of price lock targets that react to future price
increases and decreases. When implemented, the net effect is to
create a price range that a customer is comfortable operating
within.
Natural gas price management strategies need
not be complicated to be effective. But regardless of how complicated or basic your
needs, your CES account executive has the expertise to help you
develop a plan that works. Give your account executive a call to
begin developing a plan.
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